“Misreporting About the Case-Shiller Home Price Index”

Real estate prices have soared through the pandemic? Not so fast says Wolf Richter

From Wolfstreet:

The Case-Shiller Index operates on a “three-month rolling average” basis. And the price data is collected from public records. So the release today, titled “April,” was the three-month moving average for deals whose data became available in the county deed recorders in February, March, and April.

There is also a time-lag between when a deal closes and when the data becomes available in the county deed recorders.

So what the Case-Shiller showed today were closings that had occurred in prior months and that became available in the county deed recorders in February, March, and April. This included some of the deals that closed in January and excluded some of the deals that closed in April.

This is not a secret. S&P publishes the methodology. And reporters should have studied it before reporting bull-malarkey and misinforming their readers, many of whom paid a subscription to be misinformed.

So, what the national index told us today is nearly all based on home prices before the impact of the pandemic. It will be another three months – the index to be released on September 29 – before every month in the National Case Shiller Index’s rolling three-month average fully reflects home prices of sales that closed since the beginning of the lockdowns.  Each month will get us a step closer. And even then, it will take a while because house price data is sticky and moves slowly. So be patient.

The End of the American System of Government

The Northern system of government has failed…but they’ll fight to the bitter end to keep it going.

Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner from wirepoints.org has put together population and wealth movement data between states from 2010-2018. In it they find:

Continue reading “The End of the American System of Government”

Build Your Own Platforms

More and more people are being banned from the large web conglomerates. Those banned are obviously upset as the majority of their work and time went into building an audience on the platforms.

It is hard to feel sympathy for these creators. They bargained for a large audience of mass man in exchange for no control, and empowered the conglomerates at the same time. You were warned by Matt Drudge in 2015 when he went on Infowars and laid out exactly what would happen. Users would be pushed into online “ghettos”.

“I don’t know why they’ve been successful in pushing everyone into these little ghettos, of these facebooks, and these tweets…these instas.”

“This is ghetto, this is corporate, they’re taking your energy and you’re getting nothing in return – nothing!”

“Once you’re on their site, everything you do is for them. I can’t understand how they didn’t understand this.”

So build your own platforms. If you have less viewers then so be it. The people that matter will still find you.



Don’t Trust Any Data

All data cannot be trusted at this point. The government knows that the remnants of American civilization could be lost and they will do everything they can to keep it going.

From Zerohedge:

“As the following chart from Goldman’s head of European Equity Sales, Mark Wilson, shows companies haven’t sold this much stock in a single quarter in… well, forever.

According to Bloomberg data, secondary offerings in the U.S. raised $113 billion in the second quarter, the most on record. The nearly 400 deals that priced this quarter is also the most ever.

As Goldman adds, “we’re about to close out another record month of global equity issuance, with June set to eclipse the recent record set in May; the numbers (>$230b of supply in 7 weeks), and the market’s ability to absorb this sizeable supply, have been impressive (the quantum of global supply vs prior peak periods shown in the 1st chart; US supply vs recent years trend shown in 2nd chart)”

Following up on this staggering pace of equity sales, Bloomberg writes that “the record-high pace of secondary offerings that took hold in the second quarter is poised to continue into the summer” as share sales by U.S.-listed firms and their top holders raised the most money and happened the most frequently of any other quarter on record.”

The market went straight up after the March crash, all the while companies were selling new shares at the fastest pace in history. Something doesn’t add up.

Either the Fed is secretly buying stocks or there is a tremendous amount of money being deployed by private capital. If this is the case (which I don’t think it is) this money will flow into all manner of goods and drive inflation off the charts.

I believe the correct picture is this – the Fed is directly buying stocks in an effort to prop up the last vestiges of American civilization – 401k’s, pensions, conglomerate corporations, the mortgage market, and labor market supported by 25% government spending. Once one goes they all go.

If the market collapses, the retirement accounts, pensions, real estate markets all tank forever and the entire populace will immediately be in the streets rioting. The Fed knows this and is doing everything it can to keep the game going. So much rests on keeping the public unaware of what is happening, they will do anything – fabricate any data, buy any and all stocks/bonds/mortgages etc. to stave off the collapse for another day.

They know what happens if all that goes bust and they can’t let it happen. It doesn’t matter what the consequences are, the consequences pale in comparison to an immediate implosion. Everyone would be on the streets rioting.

The data says keep buying, keep spending, the economy is good, everything is fine. The Fed did a great job getting through the covid affair, everything is back to normal. But it is an illusion.

American Politics: Who Can Give Away More Fiat Money

Reuters:

It’s unraveling fast. This looks like direct vote buying at this point. The future of American politics is who can give the populace the most money for their votes. Trump says “I support actually larger numbers than the Democrats”. Well I have a feeling the Democrats can come up with a bigger number.

Trump said he supports direct payments to individuals as part of the so-called Phase 4 stimulus package.

“I do, I support it, but it has to be done properly, and I support actually larger numbers than the Democrats,” Trump said in an interview with the Fox Business Network.

“We want to create a very great incentive to work. So, we’re working on that and I’m sure we’ll all come together.” .

Recovery is at the End of the Road, but There are Cliffs in Between

I keep seeing articles about the ‘road to recovery’ and that idea is missing the entire point. This fiat system has to go to failure, then something else will be put in its place. The road goes to collapse and then rebuild an entire civilization before it can even think about recovery. Who would want to keep this fake fiat money system that has destroyed so many?

A long term economy cannot be built on the fraud of fiat money creation. Ghengis Khan tried it with tree bark, Rome tried it with bronze slugs, America with her preposterous digital ‘money’.

The great swindle, fortunately, is imploding. Those in power will seek to keep the game going as long as they can in an effort to take no blame and/or get out of dodge.

Real Estate Outlook in a Collapsing Fiat Based Economy

Real Estate Valuations Post Covid

Let’s say someone bought 10 units in 2019 for 1.2 million dollars. Each unit renting for $1,000 a month. He made 10k in gross income and after expenses his net operating income was 6k a month. The mortgage payment was 5k, leaving him with cash flow of 1k a month. OK, so a fairly good deal, certainly many investors would have done that deal in 2019 as the commercial property market was hot.

Then covid hits and 2 renters move out. A third renter has asked for forbearance and a fourth renter is not responding to calls or answering the door. So instead of making 1k a month our investor is now losing 3k a month. He is paying handsomely to own this investment property.

Continue reading “Real Estate Outlook in a Collapsing Fiat Based Economy”

What a Line

What a comment from Never_Guess at zerohedge:
“I’ll put up with a lot of you sh-t lib progressive types and your abhorrent views on how others should live their lives but I will be damned if I let you murder living, breathing, children and try to convince me that is okay. you are murderers, you are cowards and you will go to the worst and most torturous place after this life and I have no sympathy or pity for any of you.

youre too much of a coward to take the life of something that can fight back, so you target the weakest and most vulnerable that this world has to offer. And when everything is set right in this world (and it will be) you’d better hope someone like me doesn’t get their hands on you, because we know that a bullet is just to good for baby murdering trash like you.”

It looks like the battle lines are being drawn, Good v. Evil. I understand the sentiment surely. What Christ said about children is clear:
Matthew 18:6 “Whoever causes one of these little ones who believe in me to sin, it would be better for him to have a great millstone hung around his neck and to be drowned in the depths of the sea.”

Our priest this weekend quoted St. Teresa of Avila:

“In light of heaven, the worst suffering on earth will be seen to be no more serious than one night in an inconvenient hotel.”

― Saint Teresa Of Avila

Compared to Heaven, life here on earth is like one night in a cheap motel. So what do you have to lose? Fight for goodness, fight for Christ. Be a child of light. Do what’s right, regardless of what it costs you personally. Nothing on earth is worth sacrificing eternity for.


An Economic Warning From Clive Maund

From CliveMaund.com:
“Finally, I want to take this opportunity to recommend that you do whatever you can you make sure that you have at least some physical gold and silver in your possession. Very bad times are headed our way and most Americans have no idea what’s coming down the pike. If you have to pay a premium then pay it, because the premiums are only going to get bigger with passing time, and eventually physical metal will be very hard to come by. I particularly like silver for 2 reasons – one is that it is still very undervalued relative to gold, and the other is that you are less likely to be hit over the head or shot when you try to trade it for goods. Silver coins of varied denomination are viewed as ideal. Gold buried in vaults thousands of miles away may sound like a great idea, but when things get really bad, you may not be able to get to it, or it to you. If you have sufficient resources it’s still a good idea, but you still want a quantity of physical in your possession that you can trade, and of course the means and willingness to defend your stash from marauders.”