All data cannot be trusted at this point. The government knows that the remnants of American civilization could be lost and they will do everything they can to keep it going.
“As the following chart from Goldman’s head of European Equity Sales, Mark Wilson, shows companies haven’t sold this much stock in a single quarter in… well, forever.
According to Bloomberg data, secondary offerings in the U.S. raised $113 billion in the second quarter, the most on record. The nearly 400 deals that priced this quarter is also the most ever.
As Goldman adds, “we’re about to close out another record month of global equity issuance, with June set to eclipse the recent record set in May; the numbers (>$230b of supply in 7 weeks), and the market’s ability to absorb this sizeable supply, have been impressive (the quantum of global supply vs prior peak periods shown in the 1st chart; US supply vs recent years trend shown in 2nd chart)”
Following up on this staggering pace of equity sales, Bloomberg writes that “the record-high pace of secondary offerings that took hold in the second quarter is poised to continue into the summer” as share sales by U.S.-listed firms and their top holders raised the most money and happened the most frequently of any other quarter on record.”
The market went straight up after the March crash, all the while companies were selling new shares at the fastest pace in history. Something doesn’t add up.
Either the Fed is secretly buying stocks or there is a tremendous amount of money being deployed by private capital. If this is the case (which I don’t think it is) this money will flow into all manner of goods and drive inflation off the charts.
I believe the correct picture is this – the Fed is directly buying stocks in an effort to prop up the last vestiges of American civilization – 401k’s, pensions, conglomerate corporations, the mortgage market, and labor market supported by 25% government spending. Once one goes they all go.
If the market collapses, the retirement accounts, pensions, real estate markets all tank forever and the entire populace will immediately be in the streets rioting. The Fed knows this and is doing everything it can to keep the game going. So much rests on keeping the public unaware of what is happening, they will do anything – fabricate any data, buy any and all stocks/bonds/mortgages etc. to stave off the collapse for another day.
They know what happens if all that goes bust and they can’t let it happen. It doesn’t matter what the consequences are, the consequences pale in comparison to an immediate implosion. Everyone would be on the streets rioting.
The data says keep buying, keep spending, the economy is good, everything is fine. The Fed did a great job getting through the covid affair, everything is back to normal. But it is an illusion.